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AGF Aarhus vs Viborg Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Championship Group - 32 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 16:00

AGF Aarhus

PPG 2.07 · HOME

6 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Viborg

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.0%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.8%1-110.8%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.0%3-16.0%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 48.8% 2.05 +5.8%

Draw 24.1% 26.0% 3.85 -4.3%

Away win 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Over 2.5 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Over 3.5 31.4% 38.5% 2.60 -18.4%

BTTS 52.6% 65.4% 1.53 -19.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AGF Aarhus1.8

Viborg1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AGF AARHUS · PPG 2.07

VIBORG · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

AGF Aarhus (H) 51.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +5.8%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -4.3%

Viborg (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

AGF Aarhus face Viborg in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AGF Aarhus a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Viborg 24%, so AGF Aarhus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for AGF Aarhus and 1.0 for Viborg (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AGF Aarhus are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.40 for Viborg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 6-2.

AGF Aarhus vs Viborg Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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