Today / Denmark - Superliga / Fredericia vs Silkeborg

Fredericia vs Silkeborg Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Relegation Group · Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00

Fredericia

PPG 0.87 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Silkeborg

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.5%0-24.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-04.7%1-18.5%1-27.6%1-34.6%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.5%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.8%3-15.1%3-24.6%3-32.7%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.7%4+-23.3%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 46.5% 2.15 -9.9%

Draw 23.1% 26.3% 3.80 -7.3%

Away win 35.0% 33.3% 3.00 +5.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 67.6% 1.48 -5.4%

Over 3.5 50.3% 45.5% 2.20 +10.7%

BTTS 63.0% 71.4% 1.40 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.0%

H 42% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fredericia1.9

Silkeborg1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 50.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FREDERICIA · PPG 0.87

SILKEBORG · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.87), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Fredericia (H) 41.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -9.9%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.3%

Silkeborg (A) 35.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fredericia face Silkeborg in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fredericia a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Silkeborg 35%, so Fredericia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Fredericia and 1.8 for Silkeborg (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fredericia are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 1.13 for Silkeborg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 4-1.

Fredericia vs Silkeborg Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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