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FC Midtjylland vs Brondby IF Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Championship Group · Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 16:00

FC Midtjylland

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brondby IF

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.1%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.9%1-111.0%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.9%3-15.9%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 51.3% 1.95 +0.2%

Draw 24.4% 26.3% 3.80 -4.4%

Away win 24.2% 29.9% 3.35 -11.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Over 3.5 30.8% 41.7% 2.40 -26.1%

BTTS 52.6% 67.6% 1.48 -22.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Midtjylland1.8

Brondby IF1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC MIDTJYLLAND · PPG 2.00

BRONDBY IF · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

FC Midtjylland (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +0.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.4%

Brondby IF (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Midtjylland face Brondby IF in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Midtjylland a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Brondby IF 24%, so FC Midtjylland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Midtjylland and 1.0 for Brondby IF (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Midtjylland are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Brondby IF. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 2-3.

FC Midtjylland vs Brondby IF Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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