Today / Denmark - 1. Division / Aalborg BK vs HB Koge

Aalborg BK vs HB Koge Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Relegation Group - 32 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 13:00

Aalborg BK

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

HB Koge

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.8%0-23.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.3%1-110.6%1-26.7%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.5%3-15.8%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.9%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 44.4% 2.25 -2.6%

Draw 22.2% 27.8% 3.60 -12.0%

Away win 34.5% 36.8% 2.72 -6.2%

Over 2.5 60.1% 65.4% 1.53 -8.1%

Over 3.5 36.2% 42.6% 2.35 -14.9%

BTTS 55.3% 69.4% 1.44 -20.4%

Home O1.5 54.0% 54.1% 1.85 -0.1%

Away O1.5 36.4% 47.6% 2.10 -23.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.3%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 1–0✓ 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalborg BK1.8

HB Koge1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AALBORG BK · PPG 1.67

HB KOGE · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Aalborg BK (H) 43.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -2.6%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.0%

HB Koge (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalborg BK face HB Koge in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalborg BK a 43% chance, the draw 22% and HB Koge 35%, so Aalborg BK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Aalborg BK and 1.3 for HB Koge (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalborg BK are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.07 for HB Koge. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Aalborg BK vs HB Koge Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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