Today / Denmark - 1. Division / Hobro vs Middelfart

Hobro vs Middelfart Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Relegation Group - 32 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 13:00

Hobro

PPG 0.87 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Middelfart

PPG 0.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.9%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.5%1-110.8%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.4%3-16.0%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 73.0% 1.37 -26.4%

Draw 22.7% 22.5% 4.45 +0.6%

Away win 23.6% 13.5% 7.40 +44.8%

Over 2.5 60.1% 64.5% 1.55 -6.9%

Over 3.5 36.2% 42.6% 2.35 -14.9%

BTTS 55.3% 58.8% 1.70 -6.0%

Home O1.5 54.7% 71.4% 1.40 -23.4%

Away O1.5 24.2% 25.3% 3.95 -2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.3%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.5%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hobro1.8

Middelfart0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HOBRO · PPG 0.87

MIDDELFART · PPG 0.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.87) > Away POOR (0.53)

Win probability 1X2

Hobro (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.37 · IMPLIED 73.0% EV -26.4%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +0.6%

Middelfart (A) 23.6%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +44.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hobro face Middelfart in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hobro a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Middelfart 24%, so Hobro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hobro and 0.9 for Middelfart (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hobro are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 0.53 for Middelfart. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +44.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Hobro vs Middelfart Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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