Today / Denmark - 1. Division / HB Koge vs Hobro

HB Koge vs Hobro Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Relegation Group - 31 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 14:00

HB Koge

PPG 1.60 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hobro

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.9%0-25.6%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.9%1-112.4%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-18.6%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.2%3-14.0%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 35.5% 2.82 +12.2%

Draw 26.9% 29.4% 3.40 -5.1%

Away win 33.3% 43.9% 2.28 -24.1%

Over 2.5 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Over 3.5 27.3% 33.9% 2.95 -11.7%

BTTS 53.6% 62.5% 1.60 -14.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.6%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.1%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HB Koge1.4

Hobro1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HB KOGE · PPG 1.60

HOBRO · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

HB Koge (H) 39.8%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV +12.2%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.1%

Hobro (A) 33.3%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

HB Koge face Hobro in Denmark - 1. Division on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HB Koge a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Hobro 33%, so HB Koge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for HB Koge and 1.3 for Hobro (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HB Koge are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.53 for Hobro. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 0-1.

HB Koge vs Hobro Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Denmark - 1. Division Predictions