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Esbjerg vs Lyngby Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Promotion Group - 32 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 13:00

Esbjerg

PPG 1.87 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lyngby

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-19.1%0-27.9%0-34.6%0-4+2.9%1 1-06.3%1-111.0%1-29.6%1-35.5%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.9%2-16.7%2-25.8%2-33.4%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.6%3-12.7%3-22.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.1% 38.5% 2.60 -16.5%

Draw 24.7% 28.2% 3.55 -7.4%

Away win 43.2% 42.4% 2.36 +1.9%

Over 2.5 60.1% 64.5% 1.55 -6.9%

Over 3.5 36.2% 42.0% 2.38 -13.8%

BTTS 61.0% 69.4% 1.44 -12.2%

Home O1.5 34.3% 48.8% 2.05 -29.7%

Away O1.5 51.8% 51.8% 1.93 -0.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.0%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 0–1 9.1%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Esbjerg1.2

Lyngby1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ESBJERG · PPG 1.87

LYNGBY · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.87), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Esbjerg (H) 32.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -16.5%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.4%

Lyngby (A) 43.2%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Esbjerg face Lyngby in Denmark - 1. Division on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Esbjerg a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Lyngby 43%, so Lyngby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Esbjerg and 1.7 for Lyngby (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Esbjerg are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 2.00 for Lyngby. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Esbjerg vs Lyngby Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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