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Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 29 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 12:15

Nizhny Novgorod

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

CSKA Moscow

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-114.1%0-29.6%0-34.4%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.4%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.2%2-15.8%2-23.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.3%3-11.7%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 29.8% 3.36 -0.9%

Draw 29.2% 28.2% 3.54 +2.0%

Away win 41.5% 45.5% 2.20 -8.7%

Over 2.5 45.9% 51.8% 1.93 -11.4%

Over 3.5 19.4% 31.6% 3.16 -23.2%

BTTS 50.1% 58.5% 1.71 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob50.1%

A 42% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 0–1 14.1%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–2✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nizhny Novgorod0.9

CSKA Moscow1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NIZHNY NOVGOROD · PPG 1.07

CSKA MOSCOW · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Nizhny Novgorod (H) 29.3%

ODDS 3.36 · IMPLIED 29.8% EV -0.9%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.54 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +2.0%

CSKA Moscow (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nizhny Novgorod face CSKA Moscow in Russia - Premier League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 29% chance, the draw 29% and CSKA Moscow 42%, so CSKA Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.4 for CSKA Moscow (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.14 for CSKA Moscow. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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