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FC Krasnodar vs Orenburg Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

FC Krasnodar

PPG 2.43 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Orenburg

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 74.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-13.8%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-18.4%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-16.7%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-16.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.7% 74.6% 1.34 -16.0%

Draw 22.7% 18.5% 5.40 +13.6%

Away win 14.6% 10.3% 9.70 +25.0%

Over 2.5 56.2% 60.6% 1.65 -7.3%

Over 3.5 32.2% 40.0% 2.50 -19.5%

BTTS 49.2% 51.5% 1.94 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 63% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 3–0✓ 10.0%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Krasnodar2.2

Orenburg0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.2% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC KRASNODAR · PPG 2.43

ORENBURG · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.43) vs P(Home)=62.7%

Win probability 1X2

FC Krasnodar (H) 62.7%

ODDS 1.34 · IMPLIED 74.6% EV -16.0%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +13.6%

Orenburg (A) 14.6%

ODDS 9.70 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV +25.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Krasnodar face Orenburg in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Krasnodar a 63% chance, the draw 23% and Orenburg 15%, so FC Krasnodar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for FC Krasnodar and 0.7 for Orenburg (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Krasnodar are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 0.64 for Orenburg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.0%. This match finished 3-0.

FC Krasnodar vs Orenburg Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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