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Rubin Kazan vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Rubin Kazan

PPG 1.86 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Nizhny Novgorod

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 45.0% — a clear edge.

+14.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-18.3%0-22.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.0%1-111.5%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.1%2-17.9%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.0%3-13.6%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 45.0% 2.22 +14.3%

Draw 27.0% 28.1% 3.56 -2.3%

Away win 21.4% 30.3% 3.30 -17.6%

Over 2.5 36.4% 47.8% 2.09 -23.9%

Over 3.5 13.9% 27.4% 3.65 -29.6%

BTTS 46.2% 54.9% 1.82 -15.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.0%

#2 0–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 2–0 13.1%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rubin Kazan1.4

Nizhny Novgorod0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.4% · O3.5 PROB 13.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RUBIN KAZAN · PPG 1.86

NIZHNY NOVGOROD · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=51.5%

Win probability 1X2

Rubin Kazan (H) 51.5%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +14.3%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.56 · IMPLIED 28.1% EV -2.3%

Nizhny Novgorod (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rubin Kazan face Nizhny Novgorod in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rubin Kazan a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Nizhny Novgorod 21%, so Rubin Kazan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rubin Kazan and 0.6 for Nizhny Novgorod (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rubin Kazan are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.50 for Nizhny Novgorod. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Rubin Kazan vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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