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Akron vs Rostov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 29 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 10:00

Akron

PPG 0.71 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Rostov

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-112.6%0-26.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.9%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.9%2-17.2%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.5%3-12.6%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 33.8% 2.96 +6.9%

Draw 29.7% 30.5% 3.28 -1.6%

Away win 34.2% 39.1% 2.56 -12.4%

Over 2.5 44.5% 46.9% 2.13 -5.2%

Over 3.5 16.4% 27.9% 3.58 -24.8%

BTTS 49.7% 55.6% 1.80 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.7%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Akron1.1

Rostov1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 16.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AKRON · PPG 0.71

ROSTOV · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.71) vs Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Akron (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV +6.9%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.28 · IMPLIED 30.5% EV -1.6%

Rostov (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Akron face Rostov in Russia - Premier League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Akron a 36% chance, the draw 30% and Rostov 34%, so Akron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Akron and 1.0 for Rostov (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Akron are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.14 for Rostov. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Akron vs Rostov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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