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CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv M. Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

CSKA Moscow

PPG 2.07 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lokomotiv M.

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.7%0-25.1%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.9%1-111.7%1-27.7%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-18.9%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.4%3-14.5%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 40.0% 2.50 +10.0%

Draw 25.5% 27.0% 3.70 -3.4%

Away win 30.6% 36.4% 2.75 -15.8%

Over 2.5 52.8% 54.1% 1.85 -2.3%

Over 3.5 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

BTTS 59.7% 61.0% 1.64 -2.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.8%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSKA Moscow1.5

Lokomotiv M.1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CSKA MOSCOW · PPG 2.07

LOKOMOTIV M. · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

CSKA Moscow (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +10.0%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.4%

Lokomotiv M. (A) 30.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSKA Moscow face Lokomotiv M. in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSKA Moscow a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Lokomotiv M. 31%, so CSKA Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for CSKA Moscow and 1.3 for Lokomotiv M. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSKA Moscow are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.57 for Lokomotiv M.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 3-1.

CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv M. Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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