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Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Makhachkala

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Spartak Moscow

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-114.3%0-29.0%0-33.8%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.4%1-113.1%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.4%2 2-04.8%2-16.0%2-23.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.5%3-11.8%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 25.8% 3.88 +5.4%

Draw 29.1% 28.4% 3.52 +1.5%

Away win 42.8% 49.3% 2.03 -13.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 44.8% 2.23 +3.0%

Over 3.5 17.6% 25.4% 3.94 -18.4%

BTTS 49.2% 51.5% 1.94 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.2%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0✓ 11.3%

#3 0–1 14.3%

#4 0–2 9.0%

#5 1–0 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Makhachkala0.9

Spartak Moscow1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MAKHACHKALA · PPG 1.36

SPARTAK MOSCOW · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Makhachkala (H) 28.1%

ODDS 3.88 · IMPLIED 25.8% EV +5.4%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.52 · IMPLIED 28.4% EV +1.5%

Spartak Moscow (A) 42.8%

ODDS 2.03 · IMPLIED 49.3% EV -13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Makhachkala face Spartak Moscow in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Makhachkala a 28% chance, the draw 29% and Spartak Moscow 43%, so Spartak Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Makhachkala and 1.3 for Spartak Moscow (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Makhachkala are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.29 for Spartak Moscow. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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