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Krylya Sovetov vs Akron Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Krylya Sovetov

PPG 1.71 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Akron

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.0%0-25.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.8%1-112.0%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.0%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.7%3-14.5%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 44.4% 2.25 +4.0%

Draw 26.8% 27.3% 3.66 -1.1%

Away win 27.0% 31.6% 3.16 -8.8%

Over 2.5 52.6% 52.9% 1.89 -0.6%

Over 3.5 29.3% 32.8% 3.05 -6.4%

BTTS 54.6% 59.5% 1.68 -8.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Krylya Sovetov1.5

Akron1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KRYLYA SOVETOV · PPG 1.71

AKRON · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Krylya Sovetov (H) 46.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +4.0%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.66 · IMPLIED 27.3% EV -1.1%

Akron (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.16 · IMPLIED 31.6% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Krylya Sovetov face Akron in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Krylya Sovetov a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Akron 27%, so Krylya Sovetov are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Krylya Sovetov and 1.2 for Akron (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Krylya Sovetov are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.21 for Akron. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Krylya Sovetov vs Akron Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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