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PFC Sochi vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

PFC Sochi

PPG 0.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Akhmat Grozny

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 53% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-110.8%0-28.0%0-33.9%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.7%2-17.0%2-25.2%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.8%3-12.7%3-22.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 38.0% 2.63 -18.5%

Draw 26.7% 27.3% 3.66 -1.4%

Away win 42.3% 38.2% 2.62 +10.8%

Over 2.5 52.6% 52.6% 1.90 -0.1%

Over 3.5 26.8% 32.3% 3.10 -10.2%

BTTS 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 1–2 9.1%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PFC Sochi1.1

Akhmat Grozny1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PFC SOCHI · PPG 0.79

AKHMAT GROZNY · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

53%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.79), Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

PFC Sochi (H) 31.0%

ODDS 2.63 · IMPLIED 38.0% EV -18.5%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.66 · IMPLIED 27.3% EV -1.4%

Akhmat Grozny (A) 42.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

PFC Sochi face Akhmat Grozny in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PFC Sochi a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Akhmat Grozny 42%, so Akhmat Grozny are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for PFC Sochi and 1.5 for Akhmat Grozny (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PFC Sochi are averaging 0.79 points per game versus 0.64 for Akhmat Grozny. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 1-1.

PFC Sochi vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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