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Baltika vs Dinamo Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Baltika

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Dinamo Moscow

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-19.8%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.1%1-112.8%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.4%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.3%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 39.2% 2.55 +22.4%

Draw 27.7% 28.2% 3.54 -1.2%

Away win 24.3% 35.8% 2.79 -19.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 48.1% 2.08 -3.9%

Over 3.5 17.3% 27.4% 3.65 -22.1%

BTTS 49.0% 56.2% 1.78 -12.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.0%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 15.1%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baltika1.3

Dinamo Moscow0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BALTIKA · PPG 1.86

DINAMO MOSCOW · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Baltika (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +22.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.54 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.2%

Dinamo Moscow (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.79 · IMPLIED 35.8% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baltika face Dinamo Moscow in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baltika a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Dinamo Moscow 24%, so Baltika are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Baltika and 0.8 for Dinamo Moscow (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baltika are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.43 for Dinamo Moscow. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Baltika vs Dinamo Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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