Today / Russia - Premier League / Rostov vs Zenit

Rostov vs Zenit Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Rostov

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Zenit

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

Away 67% chance

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-119.4%0-212.4%0-35.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-09.2%1-111.8%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-02.8%2-13.6%2-22.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.6%3-10.7%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.1% 11.5% 8.70 +24.0%

Draw 33.1% 18.3% 5.45 +80.4%

Away win 50.8% 73.5% 1.36 -30.9%

Over 2.5 35.0% 51.8% 1.93 -32.5%

Over 3.5 12.2% 30.5% 3.28 -36.0%

BTTS 46.2% 45.2% 2.21 +2.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob46.2%

A 51% / xG 0.6-1.3 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 19.4%

#2 0–0 15.3%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 0–2 12.4%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rostov0.6

Zenit1.3

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSTOV · PPG 1.00

ZENIT · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

67%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.71) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Rostov (H) 16.1%

ODDS 8.70 · IMPLIED 11.5% EV +24.0%

Draw 33.1%

ODDS 5.45 · IMPLIED 18.3% EV +80.4%

Zenit (A) 50.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -30.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rostov face Zenit in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rostov a 16% chance, the draw 33% and Zenit 51%, so Zenit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Rostov and 1.3 for Zenit (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rostov are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.71 for Zenit. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +80.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Rostov vs Zenit Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Russia - Premier League Predictions