Today / Serbia - Super Liga / Backa Topola vs Radnicki Nis

Backa Topola vs Radnicki Nis Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Relegation Group · Matchday 36 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:00

Backa Topola

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Radnicki Nis

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-19.9%0-24.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.7%1-113.0%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-18.5%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.9%3-13.7%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 48.5% 2.06 -4.0%

Draw 28.2% 33.6% 2.98 -9.6%

Away win 25.2% 26.7% 3.75 -3.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 52.6% 1.90 -12.2%

Over 3.5 19.3% 33.3% 3.00 -25.3%

BTTS 50.9% 60.6% 1.65 -16.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.9%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Backa Topola1.3

Radnicki Nis0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BACKA TOPOLA · PPG 1.33

RADNICKI NIS · PPG 0.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.72)

Win probability 1X2

Backa Topola (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV -4.0%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -9.6%

Radnicki Nis (A) 25.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Backa Topola face Radnicki Nis in Serbia - Super Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Backa Topola a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Radnicki Nis 25%, so Backa Topola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Backa Topola and 0.9 for Radnicki Nis (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Backa Topola are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.72 for Radnicki Nis. This match finished 1-2.

Backa Topola vs Radnicki Nis Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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