Today / Serbia - Super Liga / Novi Pazar vs Z. Pancevo

Novi Pazar vs Z. Pancevo Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Championship Group · Matchday 36 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Novi Pazar

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Z. Pancevo

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-111.0%0-27.0%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.1%1-112.9%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.9%2-17.6%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.3%3-13.0%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 40.3% 2.48 -11.2%

Draw 27.4% 31.3% 3.20 -7.4%

Away win 36.8% 37.3% 2.68 -1.4%

Over 2.5 47.6% 54.6% 1.83 -12.9%

Over 3.5 23.2% 33.3% 3.00 -18.2%

BTTS 51.6% 61.7% 1.62 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -29.3%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.6%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novi Pazar1.2

Z. Pancevo1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVI PAZAR · PPG 1.65

Z. PANCEVO · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.65) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Novi Pazar (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -11.2%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.4%

Z. Pancevo (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novi Pazar face Z. Pancevo in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novi Pazar a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Z. Pancevo 37%, so Z. Pancevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Novi Pazar and 1.3 for Z. Pancevo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novi Pazar are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.18 for Z. Pancevo. This match finished 2-2.

Novi Pazar vs Z. Pancevo Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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