Today / Serbia - Super Liga / Mladost Lucani vs Napredak

Mladost Lucani vs Napredak Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Relegation Group · Matchday 37 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 17:30

Mladost Lucani

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Napredak

PPG 0.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

// Model verdict

Home 77% chance

Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-18.0%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-112.1%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.5%3-14.6%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 87.7% 1.14 -42.4%

Draw 25.9% 17.9% 5.60 +27.0%

Away win 23.5% 3.1% 32.00 +391.2%

Over 2.5 46.9% 52.6% 1.90 -10.9%

Over 3.5 20.9% 32.3% 3.10 -21.1%

BTTS 49.2% 26.7% 3.75 +84.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0✓ 14.5%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mladost Lucani1.5

Napredak0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADOST LUCANI · PPG 1.47

NAPREDAK · PPG 0.39

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

77%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.47) vs P(Home)=50.5%

Win probability 1X2

Mladost Lucani (H) 50.5%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -42.4%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +27.0%

Napredak (A) 23.5%

ODDS 32.00 · IMPLIED 3.1% EV +391.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mladost Lucani face Napredak in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mladost Lucani a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Napredak 24%, so Mladost Lucani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Mladost Lucani and 0.8 for Napredak (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mladost Lucani are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.39 for Napredak. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +391.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Mladost Lucani vs Napredak Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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