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IMT N. Beograd vs Backa Topola Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Relegation Group · Matchday 37 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 17:30

IMT N. Beograd

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Backa Topola

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-111.8%0-26.6%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.9%1-113.3%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.7%2-17.5%2-24.2%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.5%3-12.8%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 19.2% 5.20 +86.2%

Draw 28.7% 25.3% 3.95 +8.0%

Away win 35.5% 64.5% 1.55 -45.0%

Over 2.5 46.2% 54.6% 1.83 -15.4%

Over 3.5 19.1% 32.3% 3.10 -24.5%

BTTS 51.6% 54.6% 1.83 -5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IMT N. Beograd1.1

Backa Topola1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

IMT N. BEOGRAD · PPG 1.50

BACKA TOPOLA · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

IMT N. Beograd (H) 35.8%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +86.2%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +8.0%

Backa Topola (A) 35.5%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -45.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

IMT N. Beograd face Backa Topola in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IMT N. Beograd a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Backa Topola 36%, so IMT N. Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for IMT N. Beograd and 1.1 for Backa Topola (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IMT N. Beograd are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.18 for Backa Topola. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +86.2%. This match finished 1-1.

IMT N. Beograd vs Backa Topola Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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