Today / Serbia - Super Liga / Partizan vs R. Surdulica

Partizan vs R. Surdulica Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Championship Group - 37 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:00

Partizan

PPG 2.17 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

R. Surdulica

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-17.1%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.3%1-111.7%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.6%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.5%3-15.2%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 65.8% 1.52 -22.6%

Draw 25.1% 26.3% 3.80 -2.8%

Away win 24.0% 16.9% 5.90 +25.0%

Over 2.5 51.9% 54.6% 1.83 -5.0%

Over 3.5 26.1% 33.3% 3.00 -13.0%

BTTS 51.6% 54.6% 1.83 -5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Partizan1.6

R. Surdulica1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PARTIZAN · PPG 2.17

R. SURDULICA · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=50.9%

Win probability 1X2

Partizan (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -22.6%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -2.8%

R. Surdulica (A) 24.0%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +25.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Partizan face R. Surdulica in Serbia - Super Liga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Partizan a 51% chance, the draw 25% and R. Surdulica 24%, so Partizan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Partizan and 1.0 for R. Surdulica (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Partizan are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.94 for R. Surdulica. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.0%. This match finished 5-0.

Partizan vs R. Surdulica Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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