Today / Serbia - Super Liga / Cukaricki vs Partizan

Cukaricki vs Partizan Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Championship Group · Matchday 36 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Cukaricki

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Partizan

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.9%0-25.9%0-33.4%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.1%1-110.4%1-28.9%1-35.1%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.7%2-26.6%2-33.8%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.2%3-13.9%3-23.3%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.0%4+-21.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 19.2% 5.20 +81.5%

Draw 24.2% 24.4% 4.10 -0.5%

Away win 41.0% 65.8% 1.52 -37.7%

Over 2.5 61.4% 59.9% 1.67 +2.5%

Over 3.5 39.8% 37.7% 2.65 +5.5%

BTTS 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.7%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cukaricki1.5

Partizan1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CUKARICKI · PPG 1.59

PARTIZAN · PPG 1.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.59), Away GOOD (1.76)

Win probability 1X2

Cukaricki (H) 34.9%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +81.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.5%

Partizan (A) 41.0%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -37.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cukaricki face Partizan in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cukaricki a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Partizan 41%, so Partizan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Cukaricki and 1.7 for Partizan (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cukaricki are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.76 for Partizan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +81.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Cukaricki vs Partizan Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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