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Riga FC vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 16:00

Riga FC

PPG 2.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tukums

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 92.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-10.7%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.2%1-12.9%1-21.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.3%2-15.6%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.2%3-17.3%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-022.5%4+-120.1%4+-29.0%4+-32.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.0% 92.6% 1.08 -21.2%

Draw 17.4% 12.5% 8.00 +23.5%

Away win 9.6% 5.0% 20.00 +55.2%

Over 2.5 72.6% 80.0% 1.25 -9.3%

Over 3.5 53.1% 60.6% 1.65 -12.4%

BTTS 60.0% 51.3% 1.95 +17.0%

Home O1.5 77.8% 87.7% 1.14 -11.3%

Away O1.5 24.8% 18.2% 5.50 +21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob60.0%

H 73% / xG 3.9-0.9 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.2%

#2 4–0 8.0%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 4–1 7.1%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga FC3.9

Tukums0.9

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 53.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA FC · PPG 2.64

TUKUMS · PPG 0.36

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.64), Away POOR (0.36) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Riga FC (H) 73.0%

ODDS 1.08 · IMPLIED 92.6% EV -21.2%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +23.5%

Tukums (A) 9.6%

ODDS 20.00 · IMPLIED 5.0% EV +55.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga FC face Tukums in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga FC a 73% chance, the draw 17% and Tukums 10%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Riga FC and 0.9 for Tukums (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga FC are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 0.36 for Tukums. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +55.2%.

Riga FC vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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