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Ogre United vs Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 14:00

Ogre United

PPG 0.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Daugavpils

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.70), Away POOR (0.78)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-19.0%0-27.2%0-33.8%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.2%1-111.5%1-29.2%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.6%2-17.4%2-25.9%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.0%3-13.1%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 42.4% — — —

Over 2.5 60.9% — — —

Over 3.5 37.4% — — —

BTTS 61.1% — — —

Home O1.5 41.1% — — —

Away O1.5 50.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -1.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.1%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ogre United1.3

Daugavpils1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.70

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.70), Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Ogre United (H) 32.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Daugavpils (A) 42.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ogre United face Daugavpils in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ogre United a 33% chance, the draw 25% and Daugavpils 42%, so Daugavpils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ogre United and 1.6 for Daugavpils (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ogre United are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 0.78 for Daugavpils.

Ogre United vs Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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