Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Super Nova vs Ogre United
Super Nova vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga
Regular Season - 22 ·Monday, July 6, 2026, 16:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 72 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 57% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%
Form & verdict
SUPER NOVA · PPG 0.56
OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.27
Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.56), Away POOR (0.27)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Super Nova face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, July 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Super Nova a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Ogre United 20%, so Super Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Super Nova and 1.0 for Ogre United (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Super Nova are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 0.27 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.9%.