Today / Latvia - Virsliga / FS Jelgava vs RFS

FS Jelgava vs RFS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 23 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 15:00

FS Jelgava

PPG 1.27 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

RFS

PPG 2.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-19.1%0-211.2%0-39.1%0-4+10.0%1 1-03.1%1-17.7%1-29.4%1-37.7%1-4+8.4%2 2-01.3%2-13.2%2-23.9%2-33.2%2-4+3.5%3 3-00.4%3-10.9%3-21.1%3-30.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.3% 10.9% 9.20 +18.9%

Draw 20.4% 19.0% 5.25 +4.3%

Away win 65.3% 80.0% 1.25 -18.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.0% 1.45 -7.3%

Over 3.5 40.3% 46.5% 2.15 -13.4%

BTTS 55.5% 55.6% 1.80 -0.1%

Home O1.5 33.3% 23.1% 4.33 +44.2%

Away O1.5 67.9% 78.1% 1.28 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob55.5%

A 65% / xG 0.8-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–3 9.1%

#4 1–1 7.7%

#5 0–1✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FS Jelgava0.8

RFS2.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FS JELGAVA · PPG 1.27

RFS · PPG 2.73

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.73) vs Home AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

FS Jelgava (H) 14.3%

ODDS 9.20 · IMPLIED 10.9% EV +18.9%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +4.3%

RFS (A) 65.3%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FS Jelgava face RFS in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FS Jelgava a 14% chance, the draw 20% and RFS 65%, so RFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for FS Jelgava and 2.4 for RFS (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FS Jelgava are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 2.73 for RFS. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +44.2%. This match finished 0-1.

FS Jelgava vs RFS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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