Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Super Nova vs Grobina

Super Nova vs Grobina Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 23 ·Monday, July 20, 2026, 16:00

Super Nova

PPG 0.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Grobina

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-19.9%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.8%1-112.9%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-18.4%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 39.2% 2.55 +16.8%

Draw 26.9% 31.3% 3.20 -8.3%

Away win 27.3% 39.2% 2.55 -18.2%

Over 2.5 50.2% 48.8% 2.05 +2.9%

Over 3.5 29.0% 27.0% 3.70 +4.4%

BTTS 51.2% 55.6% 1.80 -7.8%

Home O1.5 41.1% 39.2% 2.55 +4.8%

Away O1.5 24.3% 39.2% 2.55 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.2%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 14.8%

#4 2–0✓ 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Super Nova1.3

Grobina0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPER NOVA · PPG 0.50

GROBINA · PPG 1.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.50) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Super Nova (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +16.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.3%

Grobina (A) 27.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Super Nova face Grobina in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, July 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Super Nova a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Grobina 27%, so Super Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Super Nova and 0.9 for Grobina (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Super Nova are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Grobina. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Super Nova vs Grobina Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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