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Al Ain vs Al Dhafra Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 15:25

Al Ain

PPG 2.45 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Dhafra

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 84.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.0%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.4%1-15.7%1-21.9%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.0%2-18.1%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.3%3-17.7%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-016.2%4+-110.9%4+-23.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.9% 84.0% 1.19 -19.2%

Draw 22.7% 17.9% 5.60 +16.3%

Away win 9.4% 6.9% 14.50 +21.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 69.0% 1.45 -10.5%

Over 3.5 46.8% 46.5% 2.15 +0.6%

BTTS 52.3% 51.3% 1.95 +2.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -7.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.3%

H 68% / xG 2.8-0.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 3–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 4–0 8.1%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ain2.8

Al Dhafra0.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 46.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AIN · PPG 2.45

AL DHAFRA · PPG 0.58

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.45), Away POOR (0.58) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al Ain (H) 67.9%

ODDS 1.19 · IMPLIED 84.0% EV -19.2%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +16.3%

Al Dhafra (A) 9.4%

ODDS 14.50 · IMPLIED 6.9% EV +21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ain face Al Dhafra in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ain a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Al Dhafra 9%, so Al Ain are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Al Ain and 0.7 for Al Dhafra (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ain are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 0.58 for Al Dhafra. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.8%. This match finished 5-0.

Al Ain vs Al Dhafra Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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