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Al Nasr vs Ittihad Kalba Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Regular Season - 25 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 14:10

Al Nasr

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ittihad Kalba

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.0%0-23.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.1%1-110.8%1-26.4%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.0%3-15.8%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.0%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 54.9% 1.82 -6.5%

Draw 25.0% 28.6% 3.50 -7.5%

Away win 23.7% 25.6% 3.90 -4.5%

Over 2.5 59.4% 57.1% 1.75 +4.0%

Over 3.5 34.9% 35.7% 2.80 -2.3%

BTTS 58.6% 61.7% 1.62 -5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -7.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.6%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Nasr1.8

Ittihad Kalba1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NASR · PPG 1.25

ITTIHAD KALBA · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Al Nasr (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -6.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.5%

Ittihad Kalba (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Nasr face Ittihad Kalba in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Nasr a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Ittihad Kalba 24%, so Al Nasr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Al Nasr and 1.2 for Ittihad Kalba (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Nasr are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.27 for Ittihad Kalba. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Al Nasr vs Ittihad Kalba Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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