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Bani Yas vs Shabab Al Ahli Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 15:25

Bani Yas

PPG 0.83 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Shabab Al Ahli

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-112.6%0-214.2%0-310.7%0-4+10.3%1 1-03.5%1-17.9%1-28.9%1-36.7%1-4+6.4%2 2-01.1%2-12.5%2-22.8%2-32.1%2-4+2.0%3 3-00.2%3-10.5%3-20.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.8% 13.9% 7.20 -4.7%

Draw 21.9% 22.5% 4.45 -1.5%

Away win 65.3% 73.0% 1.37 -10.5%

Over 2.5 59.3% 63.7% 1.57 -6.9%

Over 3.5 32.7% 40.8% 2.45 -19.9%

BTTS 48.2% 57.8% 1.73 -16.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -7.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob48.2%

A 65% / xG 0.6-2.3 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.2%

#2 0–1 12.6%

#3 0–3 10.7%

#4 1–1 7.9%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bani Yas0.6

Shabab Al Ahli2.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BANI YAS · PPG 0.83

SHABAB AL AHLI · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Bani Yas (H) 12.8%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV -4.7%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -1.5%

Shabab Al Ahli (A) 65.3%

ODDS 1.37 · IMPLIED 73.0% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bani Yas face Shabab Al Ahli in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bani Yas a 13% chance, the draw 22% and Shabab Al Ahli 65%, so Shabab Al Ahli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Bani Yas and 2.3 for Shabab Al Ahli (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bani Yas are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 2.25 for Shabab Al Ahli. This match finished 2-2.

Bani Yas vs Shabab Al Ahli Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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