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Shabab Al Ahli vs Al Nasr Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Regular Season - 24 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 16:45

Shabab Al Ahli

PPG 2.36 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Nasr

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.1%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.5%1-18.8%1-23.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.0%3-16.9%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-16.2%4+-22.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% 70.4% 1.42 -17.6%

Draw 23.2% 22.5% 4.45 +1.9%

Away win 18.8% 16.0% 6.25 +10.5%

Over 2.5 59.3% 66.7% 1.50 -11.1%

Over 3.5 33.9% 45.5% 2.20 -25.4%

BTTS 52.3% 62.5% 1.60 -16.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -7.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 58% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 1–1 8.8%

#4 2–1✓ 9.6%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shabab Al Ahli2.2

Al Nasr0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SHABAB AL AHLI · PPG 2.36

AL NASR · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.36) > Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Shabab Al Ahli (H) 58.0%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -17.6%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +1.9%

Al Nasr (A) 18.8%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shabab Al Ahli face Al Nasr in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shabab Al Ahli a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Al Nasr 19%, so Shabab Al Ahli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Shabab Al Ahli and 0.8 for Al Nasr (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shabab Al Ahli are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.73 for Al Nasr. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Shabab Al Ahli vs Al Nasr Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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