Shabab Al Ahli vs Al Nasr Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League Regular Season - 24 Al Rashid Stadium· Dubai Wednesday, May 6, 2026 16:45

Shabab Al Ahli PPG 2.36

2-1 HIT CS4

Al Nasr PPG 1.73

Away· +10.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Shabab Al Ahli face Al Nasr in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shabab Al Ahli a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Al Nasr 19%, so Shabab Al Ahli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Shabab Al Ahli and 0.8 for Al Nasr (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shabab Al Ahli are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.73 for Al Nasr. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 58.0%

Odds: 1.42 EV: -17.6%

Draw 23.2%

Odds: 4.45 EV: +1.9%

Away 18.8%

Odds: 6.25 EV: +10.5%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.3% Odds: 1.50 -11.1%

Over 3.5 33.9% Odds: 2.20 -25.4%

BTTS 52.3% Odds: 1.60 -16.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✔

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Shabab Al Ahli

2.17

Al Nasr

0.77

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -11.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -11.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+10.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5/Under 57%

BTTS/No 52%

Score Hit 52%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.36) > Away GOOD (1.73)