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Al Jazira vs Al Wasl Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 25 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 16:45

Al Jazira

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Wasl

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.4%0-23.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.4%1-111.1%1-26.5%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.6%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.7%3-15.6%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.6%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 41.7% 2.40 +22.9%

Draw 24.9% 28.2% 3.55 -7.0%

Away win 23.9% 39.1% 2.56 -23.3%

Over 2.5 59.4% 59.9% 1.67 -0.8%

Over 3.5 33.5% 37.7% 2.65 -11.2%

BTTS 57.6% 65.4% 1.53 -11.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Jazira1.7

Al Wasl1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL JAZIRA · PPG 2.00

AL WASL · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Al Jazira (H) 51.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +22.9%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.0%

Al Wasl (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Jazira face Al Wasl in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Jazira a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Al Wasl 24%, so Al Jazira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al Jazira and 1.2 for Al Wasl (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Jazira are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Al Wasl. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Al Jazira vs Al Wasl Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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