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Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 25 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 16:45

Khorfakkan

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al Wahda

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.9%0-28.6%0-35.0%0-4+3.2%1 1-06.4%1-111.2%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.6%2-16.3%2-25.5%2-33.2%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.3%3-12.3%3-22.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 21.3% 4.70 +22.6%

Draw 26.0% 26.0% 3.85 +0.1%

Away win 44.6% 61.7% 1.62 -27.8%

Over 2.5 56.2% 61.7% 1.62 -9.0%

Over 3.5 32.2% 40.0% 2.50 -19.5%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.6%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Khorfakkan1.1

Al Wahda1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.2% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KHORFAKKAN · PPG 0.92

AL WAHDA · PPG 1.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

60%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.55) vs Home POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

Khorfakkan (H) 29.3%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +22.6%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +0.1%

Al Wahda (A) 44.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Khorfakkan face Al Wahda in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Khorfakkan a 29% chance, the draw 26% and Al Wahda 45%, so Al Wahda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Khorfakkan and 1.7 for Al Wahda (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Khorfakkan are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.55 for Al Wahda. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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