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Imigresen vs Melaka Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Regular Season - 26 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00

Imigresen

PPG 1.09 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Melaka

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.0%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.6%1-18.8%1-24.1%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.9%3-17.3%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-16.8%4+-23.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 54.1% 1.85 +6.6%

Draw 21.9% 27.4% 3.65 -12.0%

Away win 20.5% 28.2% 3.55 -16.3%

Over 2.5 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Over 3.5 38.4% 45.5% 2.20 -15.5%

BTTS 52.6% 69.4% 1.44 -24.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 58% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 1–1✓ 8.8%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 3–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Imigresen2.2

Melaka0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IMIGRESEN · PPG 1.09

MELAKA · PPG 0.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.09) > Away POOR (0.36)

Win probability 1X2

Imigresen (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +6.6%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.0%

Melaka (A) 20.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Imigresen face Melaka in Malaysia - Super League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Imigresen a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Melaka 21%, so Imigresen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Imigresen and 0.9 for Melaka (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Imigresen are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.36 for Melaka. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Imigresen vs Melaka Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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