CF America vs Atlas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Mexico - Liga MX Clausura - 17 Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes· Mexico City Sunday, April 26, 2026 03:10

CF America PPG 1.63

0-1 MISS

Atlas PPG 1.00

Away· +36.3% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

CF America face Atlas in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF America a 47% chance, the draw 31% and Atlas 22%, so CF America are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for CF America and 0.6 for Atlas (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF America are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.00 for Atlas. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.8%

Odds: 1.54 EV: -27.9%

Draw 31.4%

Odds: 3.85 EV: +20.9%

Away 21.8%

Odds: 6.25 EV: +36.3%

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.4% Odds: 2.10 -6.8%

Over 3.5 15.6% Odds: 3.80 -40.7%

BTTS 49.5% Odds: 2.10 +4.0%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

CF America

1.43

Atlas

0.64

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 15.2%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)