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CF America vs Atlas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Clausura - 17 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 03:10

CF America

PPG 1.63 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Atlas

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-18.1%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.0%1-111.5%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.9%2-18.3%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-13.9%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 64.9% 1.54 -27.9%

Draw 31.4% 26.0% 3.85 +20.9%

Away win 21.8% 16.0% 6.25 +36.3%

Over 2.5 44.4% 47.6% 2.10 -6.8%

Over 3.5 15.6% 26.3% 3.80 -40.7%

BTTS 49.5% 47.6% 2.10 +4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.0%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 2–0 12.9%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CF America1.4

Atlas0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CF AMERICA · PPG 1.63

ATLAS · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

CF America (H) 46.8%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -27.9%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +20.9%

Atlas (A) 21.8%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +36.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

CF America face Atlas in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF America a 47% chance, the draw 31% and Atlas 22%, so CF America are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for CF America and 0.6 for Atlas (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF America are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.00 for Atlas. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.3%. This match finished 0-1.

CF America vs Atlas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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