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Puebla vs Queretaro Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Clausura - 17 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 03:00

Puebla

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Queretaro

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-113.1%0-25.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.9%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.5%2-16.6%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.9%3-12.2%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 41.0% 2.44 -2.6%

Draw 32.8% 29.4% 3.40 +11.5%

Away win 27.3% 36.8% 2.72 -25.7%

Over 2.5 26.4% 54.6% 1.83 -51.7%

Over 3.5 10.6% 32.3% 3.10 -67.1%

BTTS 34.2% 60.6% 1.65 -43.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob34.2%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.9%

#2 0–0 16.8%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puebla1.0

Queretaro0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.4% · O3.5 PROB 10.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PUEBLA · PPG 1.13

QUERETARO · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.13) > Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Puebla (H) 39.9%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -2.6%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +11.5%

Queretaro (A) 27.3%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puebla face Queretaro in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puebla a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Queretaro 27%, so Puebla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Puebla and 0.8 for Queretaro (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puebla are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.57 for Queretaro. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Puebla vs Queretaro Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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