Puebla vs Queretaro Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Mexico - Liga MX Clausura - 17 Estadio Cuauhtemoc· Puebla Saturday, April 25, 2026 03:00

Puebla PPG 1.13

1-2 MISS

Queretaro PPG 0.57

Draw· +11.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Puebla face Queretaro in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puebla a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Queretaro 27%, so Puebla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Puebla and 0.8 for Queretaro (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puebla are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.57 for Queretaro. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 39.9%

Odds: 2.44 EV: -2.6%

Draw 32.8%

Odds: 3.40 EV: +11.5%

Away 27.3%

Odds: 2.72 EV: -25.7%

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 26.4% Odds: 1.83 -51.7%

Over 3.5 10.6% Odds: 3.10 -67.1%

BTTS 34.2% Odds: 1.65 -43.6%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Puebla

1.01

Queretaro

0.78

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 15.2%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.13) > Away POOR (0.57)