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Pachuca vs Pumas UNAM Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Clausura - 17 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 15:15

Pachuca

PPG 2.50 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Pumas UNAM

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away EXCELLENT (2.14)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.8%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.2%1-111.3%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.3%3-15.2%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 28.3% — — —

Over 2.5 55.5% — — —

Over 3.5 33.1% — — —

BTTS 57.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.5%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.2%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pachuca1.7

Pumas UNAM1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PACHUCA · PPG 2.50

PUMAS UNAM · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away EXCELLENT (2.14)

Win probability 1X2

Pachuca (H) 47.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pumas UNAM (A) 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Pachuca face Pumas UNAM in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pachuca a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Pumas UNAM 28%, so Pachuca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Pachuca and 1.2 for Pumas UNAM (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pachuca are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.14 for Pumas UNAM. This match finished 3-0.

Pachuca vs Pumas UNAM Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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