Today / Mexico - Liga MX / Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 03:05

Toluca

PPG 0.01 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

PPG 0.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDL

// Model verdict

Home 64% chance

Model probability 73.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.2% — a clear edge.

+24.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-12.5%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.7%1-15.2%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-021.1%2-15.3%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.3%3-13.6%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-12.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.8% 59.2% 1.69 +24.7%

Draw 18.8% 25.6% 3.90 -16.0%

Away win 7.4% 22.0% 4.55 -39.8%

Over 2.5 50.0% 61.7% 1.62 -19.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 39.2% 2.55 -15.9%

BTTS 28.6% 62.5% 1.60 -32.5%

Home O1.5 57.9% 61.7% 1.62 -6.2%

Away O1.5 11.1% 33.9% 2.95 -40.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob28.6%

H 74% / xG 2.0-0.2 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 21.1%

#2 1–0 20.7%

#3 3–0 14.3%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 4–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toluca2.0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas0.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TOLUCA · PPG 0.01

U.N.A.M. - PUMAS · PPG 0.01

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.01), Away POOR (0.01)

Win probability 1X2

Toluca (H) 73.8%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV +24.7%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -16.0%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (A) 7.4%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -39.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toluca face U.N.A.M. - Pumas in Mexico - Liga MX on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toluca a 74% chance, the draw 19% and U.N.A.M. - Pumas 7%, so Toluca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Toluca and 0.3 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toluca are averaging 0.01 points per game versus 0.01 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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