Today / Mexico - Liga MX / Juarez vs A. San Luis

Juarez vs A. San Luis Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Clausura · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 03:00

Juarez

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

A. San Luis

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.8%0-22.7%0-31.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-03.5%1-16.5%1-26.2%1-33.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.0%2-17.6%2-27.1%2-34.5%2-4+3.3%3 3-03.1%3-15.8%3-25.5%3-33.5%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-15.8%4+-25.5%4+-33.5%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 50.8% 1.97 -7.0%

Draw 24.3% 26.7% 3.75 -8.9%

Away win 28.5% 29.4% 3.40 -3.1%

Over 2.5 61.3% 60.6% 1.65 +1.1%

Over 3.5 60.5% 37.7% 2.65 +60.3%

BTTS 61.7% 63.7% 1.57 -3.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob61.7%

H 47% / xG 2.3-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 7.6%

#2 1–1 6.5%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.2%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juarez2.3

A. San Luis1.9

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 60.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JUAREZ · PPG 1.00

A. SAN LUIS · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Juarez (H) 47.2%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -7.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.9%

A. San Luis (A) 28.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juarez face A. San Luis in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juarez a 47% chance, the draw 24% and A. San Luis 28%, so Juarez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Juarez and 1.9 for A. San Luis (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juarez are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.14 for A. San Luis. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +60.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Juarez vs A. San Luis Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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