Juarez vs A. San Luis Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Mexico - Liga MX Clausura - 17 Estadio Olimpico Benito Juarez· Ciudad Juarez Sunday, April 26, 2026 03:00

Juarez PPG 1.00

2-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

A. San Luis PPG 1.14

Over3.5· +60.3% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Juarez face A. San Luis in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juarez a 47% chance, the draw 24% and A. San Luis 28%, so Juarez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Juarez and 1.9 for A. San Luis (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juarez are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.14 for A. San Luis. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +60.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 47.2%

Odds: 1.97 EV: -7.0%

Draw 24.3%

Odds: 3.75 EV: -8.9%

Away 28.5%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -3.1%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.3% Odds: 1.65 +1.1%

Over 3.5 60.5% Odds: 2.65 +60.3%

BTTS 61.7% Odds: 1.57 -3.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✔

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-2 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Juarez

2.32

A. San Luis

1.89

Model SuggestionBTTS -3.1% ROI TRACKS: Over 3.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 3.5. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 15.2%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.14)