Santos Laguna vs Monterrey Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Mexico - Liga MX Clausura - 17 Estadio Corona· Torreon Sunday, April 26, 2026 23:00

Santos Laguna PPG 0.71

3-0 MISS

Monterrey PPG 1.14

Draw· +7.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos Laguna face Monterrey in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos Laguna a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Monterrey 46%, so Monterrey are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Santos Laguna and 2.2 for Monterrey (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos Laguna are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.14 for Monterrey. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 26.7%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -11.9%

Draw 27.6%

Odds: 3.90 EV: +7.6%

Away 45.7%

Odds: 1.97 EV: -10.0%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.5% Odds: 1.50 -9.3%

Over 3.5 44.5% Odds: 2.25 +0.1%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.45 -15.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 1-3 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Santos Laguna

1.26

Monterrey

2.15

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -9.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -9.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+7.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.71) vs Away AVERAGE (1.14)