Today / Mexico - Liga MX / Santos Laguna vs Monterrey

Santos Laguna vs Monterrey Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Clausura · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 23:00

Santos Laguna

PPG 0.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Monterrey

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-17.1%0-27.6%0-35.5%0-4+4.9%1 1-04.1%1-18.9%1-29.6%1-36.9%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.6%2-15.6%2-26.1%2-34.4%2-4+3.9%3 3-01.1%3-12.4%3-22.6%3-31.8%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% 30.3% 3.30 -11.9%

Draw 27.6% 25.6% 3.90 +7.6%

Away win 45.7% 50.8% 1.97 -10.0%

Over 2.5 60.5% 66.7% 1.50 -9.3%

Over 3.5 44.5% 44.4% 2.25 +0.1%

BTTS 58.5% 69.0% 1.45 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob58.5%

A 46% / xG 1.3-2.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 1–3 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos Laguna1.3

Monterrey2.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS LAGUNA · PPG 0.71

MONTERREY · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.71) vs Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Santos Laguna (H) 26.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.9%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +7.6%

Monterrey (A) 45.7%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos Laguna face Monterrey in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos Laguna a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Monterrey 46%, so Monterrey are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Santos Laguna and 2.2 for Monterrey (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos Laguna are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.14 for Monterrey. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Santos Laguna vs Monterrey Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

More Mexico - Liga MX Predictions