Tigres vs Mazatlan Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Mexico - Liga MX Clausura - 17 Estadio Universitario· Monterrey Saturday, April 25, 2026 23:00

Tigres PPG 1.57

5-1 MISS

Mazatlan PPG 0.50

Away· +10.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigres face Mazatlan in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigres a 81% chance, the draw 12% and Mazatlan 7%, so Tigres are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Tigres and 0.8 for Mazatlan (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigres are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.50 for Mazatlan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 5-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 80.7%

Odds: 1.18 EV: -4.8%

Draw 12.3%

Odds: 6.20 EV: -23.7%

Away 6.9%

Odds: 16.00 EV: +10.4%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 70.3% Odds: 1.45 +1.9%

Over 3.5 49.2% Odds: 2.10 +3.3%

BTTS 49.9% Odds: 2.00 -0.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 3-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Tigres

2.88

Mazatlan

0.75

Model SuggestionHome -4.8% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-4.8%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.57), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus