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Tigres vs Mazatlan Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Clausura · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 23:00

Tigres

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWL

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mazatlan

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWL

// Model verdict

Home 84% chance

Model probability 80.7% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.0%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.6%1-15.7%1-22.2%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.0%2-18.3%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.5%3-17.9%3-23.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-015.4%4+-111.6%4+-24.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 80.7% 84.7% 1.18 -4.8%

Draw 12.3% 16.1% 6.20 -23.7%

Away win 6.9% 6.3% 16.00 +10.4%

Over 2.5 70.3% 69.0% 1.45 +1.9%

Over 3.5 49.2% 47.6% 2.10 +3.3%

BTTS 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 81% / xG 2.9-0.8 / O2.5 70% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 3–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tigres2.9

Mazatlan0.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.3% · O3.5 PROB 49.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TIGRES · PPG 1.57

MAZATLAN · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

84%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.57), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tigres (H) 80.7%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -4.8%

Draw 12.3%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV -23.7%

Mazatlan (A) 6.9%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigres face Mazatlan in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigres a 81% chance, the draw 12% and Mazatlan 7%, so Tigres are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Tigres and 0.8 for Mazatlan (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigres are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.50 for Mazatlan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 5-1.

Tigres vs Mazatlan Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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