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Cruz Azul vs Puebla Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura - 2 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 01:00

Cruz Azul

PPG 0.01 · HOME

UPCOMING

Puebla

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 11.8% — a clear edge.

+461.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-121.7%0-218.2%0-310.2%0-4+6.2%1 1-04.8%1-18.0%1-26.7%1-33.8%1-4+2.3%2 2-00.9%2-11.5%2-21.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.1%3-10.2%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.7% 75.2% 1.33 -49.9%

Draw 21.3% 20.0% 5.00 +3.9%

Away win 66.0% 11.8% 8.50 +461.0%

Over 2.5 43.4% 60.6% 1.65 -28.4%

Over 3.5 22.9% 37.0% 2.70 -22.9%

BTTS 46.4% 51.3% 1.95 -9.5%

Home O1.5 6.8% 70.4% 1.42 -54.2%

Away O1.5 48.9% 20.0% 5.00 +144.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob46.4%

A 66% / xG 0.4-1.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 21.7%

#2 0–2 18.2%

#3 0–0 12.9%

#4 0–3 10.2%

#5 1–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruz Azul0.4

Puebla1.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZ AZUL · PPG 0.01

PUEBLA · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home POOR (0.01)

Win probability 1X2

Cruz Azul (H) 12.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -49.9%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.9%

Puebla (A) 66.0%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +461.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruz Azul face Puebla in Mexico - Liga MX on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruz Azul a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Puebla 66%, so Puebla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for Cruz Azul and 1.7 for Puebla (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruz Azul are averaging 0.01 points per game versus 3.00 for Puebla. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +461.0%.

Cruz Azul vs Puebla Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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