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Cruz Azul vs Puebla Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 01:00

Cruz Azul

PPG 0.01 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Puebla

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

Away 29% chance

Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 12.5% — a clear edge.

+428.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-121.7%0-218.2%0-310.2%0-4+6.2%1 1-04.8%1-18.0%1-26.7%1-33.8%1-4+2.3%2 2-00.9%2-11.5%2-21.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.1%3-10.2%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.7% 74.1% 1.35 -49.7%

Draw 21.3% 20.4% 4.90 +2.6%

Away win 66.0% 12.5% 8.00 +428.0%

Over 2.5 43.4% 60.6% 1.65 -28.4%

Over 3.5 22.9% 37.0% 2.70 -22.9%

BTTS 46.4% 51.3% 1.95 -9.5%

Home O1.5 6.8% 70.4% 1.42 -54.2%

Away O1.5 48.9% 21.1% 4.75 +132.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob46.4%

A 66% / xG 0.4-1.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 21.7%

#2 0–2 18.2%

#3 0–0 12.9%

#4 0–3 10.2%

#5 1–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruz Azul0.4

Puebla1.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZ AZUL · PPG 0.01

PUEBLA · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

29%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home POOR (0.01)

Win probability 1X2

Cruz Azul (H) 12.7%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -49.7%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +2.6%

Puebla (A) 66.0%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +428.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruz Azul face Puebla in Mexico - Liga MX on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruz Azul a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Puebla 66%, so Puebla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for Cruz Azul and 1.7 for Puebla (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruz Azul are averaging 0.01 points per game versus 3.00 for Puebla. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +428.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Cruz Azul vs Puebla Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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