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ADT vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 10 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 20:15

ADT

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Alianza Lima

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 44.2% — a clear edge.

+15.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-117.5%0-211.4%0-34.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-09.5%1-112.3%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-03.3%2-14.3%2-22.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.8%3-11.0%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.2% 31.3% 3.20 -35.4%

Draw 28.9% 31.7% 3.15 -9.0%

Away win 50.9% 44.2% 2.26 +15.0%

Over 2.5 32.5% 45.5% 2.20 -28.5%

Over 3.5 14.4% 23.8% 4.20 -39.5%

BTTS 36.8% 54.1% 1.85 -31.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob36.8%

A 51% / xG 0.7-1.3 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.5%

#2 0–0 13.5%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 0–2 11.4%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADT0.7

Alianza Lima1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.5% · O3.5 PROB 14.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ADT · PPG 1.25

ALIANZA LIMA · PPG 1.60

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.25) vs Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

ADT (H) 20.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -35.4%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -9.0%

Alianza Lima (A) 50.9%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

ADT face Alianza Lima in Peru - Primera División on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADT a 20% chance, the draw 29% and Alianza Lima 51%, so Alianza Lima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for ADT and 1.3 for Alianza Lima (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADT are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.60 for Alianza Lima. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.0%.

ADT vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions