ADT vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Peru - Primera División Apertura - 10 Estadio Union Tarma· Tarma Tuesday, April 14, 2026 20:15

ADT PPG 1.25

VS PENDING

Alianza Lima PPG 1.60

Away· +15.0% ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

ADT face Alianza Lima in Peru - Primera División on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADT a 20% chance, the draw 29% and Alianza Lima 51%, so Alianza Lima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for ADT and 1.3 for Alianza Lima (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADT are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.60 for Alianza Lima. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.0%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 20.2%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -35.4%

Draw 28.9%

Odds: 3.15 EV: -9.0%

Away 50.9%

Odds: 2.26 EV: +15.0%

Model lean: Away

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 32.5% Odds: 2.20 -28.5%

Over 3.5 14.4% Odds: 4.20 -39.5%

BTTS 36.8% Odds: 1.85 -31.9%

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1

2nd 0-0

3rd 1-1

4th 0-2

5th 1-0

Expected Goals (xG)

ADT

0.70

Alianza Lima

1.30

Model SuggestionAway +15.0% ROI TRACKS: Away
Tracked ROI market: Away. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.25) vs Away GOOD (1.60)