Today / Scotland - League One / Peterhead vs Inverness

Peterhead vs Inverness Prediction— Scotland - League One

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

Peterhead

PPG 1.60 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Inverness

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-110.3%0-29.7%0-36.1%0-4+4.5%1 1-05.5%1-110.5%1-29.9%1-36.3%1-4+4.6%2 2-02.8%2-15.4%2-25.1%2-33.2%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.0%3-11.8%3-21.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.1% 15.6% 6.40 +28.6%

Draw 22.2% 24.4% 4.10 -9.0%

Away win 57.7% 69.4% 1.44 -16.9%

Over 2.5 55.7% 58.8% 1.70 -5.3%

Over 3.5 33.4% 36.4% 2.75 -8.2%

BTTS 54.4% 55.6% 1.80 -2.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob54.4%

A 58% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 0–1 10.3%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–2✓ 9.7%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Peterhead1.0

Inverness1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.7% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PETERHEAD · PPG 1.60

INVERNESS · PPG 1.69

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Peterhead (H) 20.1%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +28.6%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -9.0%

Inverness (A) 57.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Peterhead face Inverness in Scotland - League One on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peterhead a 20% chance, the draw 22% and Inverness 58%, so Inverness are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Peterhead and 1.9 for Inverness (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peterhead are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.69 for Inverness. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Peterhead vs Inverness Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League One Predictions