Today / Scotland - League One / Queen of South vs Montrose

Queen of South vs Montrose Prediction— Scotland - League One

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Queen of South

PPG 1.71 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Montrose

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.5%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.5%1-16.8%1-23.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.7%2-19.1%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.8%3-18.1%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-110.3%4+-25.4%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.0% 66.7% 1.50 +8.0%

Draw 15.7% 23.8% 4.20 -34.1%

Away win 12.3% 19.0% 5.25 -35.4%

Over 2.5 71.7% 64.5% 1.55 +11.1%

Over 3.5 50.8% 42.0% 2.38 +20.9%

BTTS 60.2% 61.7% 1.62 -2.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.2%

H 72% / xG 2.7-1.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 2–0 8.7%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 7.8%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Queen of South2.7

Montrose1.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

QUEEN OF SOUTH · PPG 1.71

MONTROSE · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.71), Away POOR (0.88) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Queen of South (H) 72.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +8.0%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -34.1%

Montrose (A) 12.3%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -35.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Queen of South face Montrose in Scotland - League One on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Queen of South a 72% chance, the draw 16% and Montrose 12%, so Queen of South are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Queen of South and 1.0 for Montrose (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Queen of South are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.88 for Montrose. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Queen of South vs Montrose Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League One Predictions