Today / Scotland - Championship / Airdrieonians vs Dunfermline

Airdrieonians vs Dunfermline Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

Airdrieonians

PPG 0.80 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Dunfermline

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 41.7% — a clear edge.

+30.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-110.4%0-29.3%0-35.5%0-4+3.7%1 1-06.1%1-111.0%1-29.8%1-35.9%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.2%2-15.8%2-25.2%2-33.1%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.1%3-12.0%3-21.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.3% 36.8% 2.72 -39.3%

Draw 23.2% 30.3% 3.30 -23.4%

Away win 54.5% 41.7% 2.40 +30.8%

Over 2.5 54.2% 50.0% 2.00 +8.4%

Over 3.5 31.9% 29.0% 3.45 +10.1%

BTTS 54.4% 58.8% 1.70 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.4%

A 55% / xG 1.1-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 0–1 10.4%

#3 1–2 9.8%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 1–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Airdrieonians1.1

Dunfermline1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.2% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AIRDRIEONIANS · PPG 0.80

DUNFERMLINE · PPG 1.31

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.31) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Airdrieonians (H) 22.3%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -39.3%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -23.4%

Dunfermline (A) 54.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +30.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Airdrieonians face Dunfermline in Scotland - Championship on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Airdrieonians a 22% chance, the draw 23% and Dunfermline 55%, so Dunfermline are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Airdrieonians and 1.8 for Dunfermline (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Airdrieonians are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.31 for Dunfermline. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Airdrieonians vs Dunfermline Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Championship Predictions