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St. Johnstone vs Raith Rovers Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Regular Season - 35 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:45

St. Johnstone

PPG 2.12 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Raith Rovers

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 77.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8% — a clear edge.

+17.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-13.2%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.1%1-17.1%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.7%2-17.9%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.3%3-15.8%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.4%4+-15.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.5% 65.8% 1.52 +17.8%

Draw 16.1% 26.0% 3.85 -38.0%

Away win 6.5% 16.9% 5.90 -61.7%

Over 2.5 50.3% 55.6% 1.80 -9.5%

Over 3.5 28.3% 34.5% 2.90 -17.9%

BTTS 33.6% 55.6% 1.80 -39.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob33.6%

H 78% / xG 2.2-0.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 16.7%

#2 1–0 15.1%

#3 3–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 1–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Johnstone2.2

Raith Rovers0.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. JOHNSTONE · PPG 2.12

RAITH ROVERS · PPG 0.88

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.12), Away POOR (0.88) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

St. Johnstone (H) 77.5%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV +17.8%

Draw 16.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -38.0%

Raith Rovers (A) 6.5%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV -61.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Johnstone face Raith Rovers in Scotland - Championship on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Johnstone a 78% chance, the draw 16% and Raith Rovers 7%, so St. Johnstone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for St. Johnstone and 0.5 for Raith Rovers (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Johnstone are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.88 for Raith Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 2-0.

St. Johnstone vs Raith Rovers Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Championship Predictions