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Airdrieonians vs Ayr Utd Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Airdrieonians

PPG 0.82 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Ayr Utd

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-110.9%0-25.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.1%1-113.2%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.1%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.5%3-13.3%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 48.1% 2.08 -11.4%

Draw 29.1% 31.3% 3.20 -6.9%

Away win 28.3% 29.9% 3.35 -5.2%

Over 2.5 36.5% 47.6% 2.10 -23.4%

Over 3.5 17.2% 27.0% 3.70 -36.4%

BTTS 42.8% 55.6% 1.80 -23.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob42.8%

H 43% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.1%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Airdrieonians1.2

Ayr Utd0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AIRDRIEONIANS · PPG 0.82

AYR UTD · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.82) vs Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Airdrieonians (H) 42.6%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -11.4%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.9%

Ayr Utd (A) 28.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Airdrieonians face Ayr Utd in Scotland - Championship on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Airdrieonians a 43% chance, the draw 29% and Ayr Utd 28%, so Airdrieonians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Airdrieonians and 0.9 for Ayr Utd (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Airdrieonians are averaging 0.82 points per game versus 1.18 for Ayr Utd. This match finished 2-1.

Airdrieonians vs Ayr Utd Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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