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Greenock Morton vs Airdrieonians Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Regular Season - 36 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:45

Greenock Morton

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Airdrieonians

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-110.8%0-25.9%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.2%1-113.2%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.4%2-18.0%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.0%3-13.3%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 44.4% 2.25 -16.3%

Draw 32.2% 30.3% 3.30 +6.3%

Away win 30.6% 34.5% 2.90 -11.3%

Over 2.5 40.5% 52.6% 1.90 -23.1%

Over 3.5 20.2% 31.3% 3.20 -35.4%

BTTS 48.7% 59.9% 1.67 -18.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.7%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Greenock Morton1.2

Airdrieonians1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GREENOCK MORTON · PPG 1.29

AIRDRIEONIANS · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Greenock Morton (H) 37.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -16.3%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +6.3%

Airdrieonians (A) 30.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Greenock Morton face Airdrieonians in Scotland - Championship on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Greenock Morton a 37% chance, the draw 32% and Airdrieonians 31%, so Greenock Morton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Greenock Morton and 1.1 for Airdrieonians (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Greenock Morton are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.06 for Airdrieonians. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Greenock Morton vs Airdrieonians Prediction— Scotland - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Championship Predictions